The
new governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is already making his
presence felt. Although he is relatively young, Mr Carney comes with a good
pedigree. With a career that culminated in the post of Governor of the Bank of
Canada from 2008 to 2013, he is also the Chairman of the Financial Stability
Board. This is the international body set up to promote effective regulation
and financial sector policies, and to coordinate the different national
financial authorities and international standard setting.
In
the UK, his announcements and intentions are all interesting, but contentious. Your
outsourced bookkeepers will be watching developments
to see how his policies will end up affecting you and their other clients.
The Base Rate
His
recent statement that the base rate of interest is to be held at 0.5% until
unemployment is reduced from its current 7.8%, to 7%, is a continuation of his
policy of ‘forward guidance’, which he introduced in Canada in 2008. He
believes it will give both mortgage holders and small businesses confidence
about their debt management for several years, and therefore boost the economy.
It
has, of course, elicited much criticism. He may or may not be able to carry it
off, depending how inflation and other aspects go. His focus for our central
bank is said to have swung away from the traditional one of controlling
inflation, to an emphasis on growing the economy. His own predictions are that
it might take about three years to create the 750,000 jobs needed to arrive at
the 7% unemployment figure.
The
Chief Economist at the Institute of Directors, Graeme Leach, certainly doesn’t
agree that forward guidance will boost the economy. He believes that after “a
moderate growth spurt over the next 12 months” we’ll settle back to something
like a GDP growth of below 2%.
Another
worry is that it will encourage people to borrow more than is sensible. Your outsourced bookkeepers will be happy to
give you an independent opinion on how much debt your business finances can
stand. Meanwhile, The Institute of Economic Affairs has suggested that Mr
Carney is ‘playing with fire’, because inflation could run amok as it did in
the 1970s, causing worse recession and having the opposite effect to the one intended.
Stance on Women
Speaking
on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Mr Carney discussed the fact that there are
no women on the Monetary Policy Committee. He said that the best female
economists should be supported to develop all the way through the ranks. He
will be encouraging female candidates for positions on the Committee and even
for the post of governor when the time comes for him to step down.
Life
at the Bank of England is not going to be boring under Mark Carney.